Biden leads among white voters and independents, two groups that the president carried in 2016.
Donald Trump has fixated on Minnesota since his narrow loss to Hillary Clinton there four years ago. But with less than a month until the election, his prospects there are dimming.
Four years ago, it was close. Trump lost the state by fewer than 45,000 votes, and immediately after the election began signaling his infatuation with Minnesota. It was one of his few offensive opportunities on the 2020 battleground map. “History suggests Minnesota is an uphill climb for any Republican candidate for president,” Tim Pawlenty, the former Republican governor of Minnesota, said in an email. “But Trump has a better shot than most.”
In part, that has more to do with Biden than with Trump. One reason Trump came close to carrying Minnesota four year ago was that Clinton alienated many voters there, especially in rural western areas of the state and in northeastern Minnesota, in and around the blue-collar Iron Range. Trump only drew about as many votes in Minnesota that year as Mitt Romney did in his losing effort four years earlier, but Clinton’s underperformance put the state in play.
“There was definitely concern in early September that the race was tightening here,” said Ken Martin, chairman of Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. “But right now, we feel very good about the position we’re in … This is an election where I wish the election were tomorrow.”
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