According to the New York-based firm, the financial profiles of miners will remain resilient in the short to medium term as commodity prices remain above mid-cycle levels.
This is despite “significant normalization in prices year-to-date,” which it says will provide financial flexibility for M&A.As such, deal activity is on track to reach the highest for a decade this year, with miners experiencing increased financial flexibility as a result of extraordinarily high profits over 2021-2022.
“Changing demand patterns brought about by the energy transition, increasingly lengthy greenfield project construction timelines and limited organic growth options should support deal activity beyond 2023,” Fitch says. “Miners will be particularly active in future-facing metals such as lithium, nickel and copper, where the market is likely to be in structural deficit beyond 2026.”
In addition, lower prices in the coming years may also spur further acquisitive activity, Fitch adds, as “lower valuations present strategic consolidation opportunities, particularly in the still fragmented gold sector.”
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