The majority of carbon offset schemes are significantly overestimating the levels of deforestation they are preventing, according to a study published in Science.
An international team of scientists and economists led by the University of Cambridge and VU Amsterdam found that millions ofcredits are based on crude calculations that inflate the conservation successes of voluntary REDD+ projects.
Carbon credit markets have exploded in recent years. Over 150 million credits originated from voluntary REDD+ projects in 2021, with a value of US $1.3 billion.
"Potential buyers benefit from consistently low prices created by the flood of credits. It means that companies can tick their net zero box at the lowest possible cost," he said. The research team took a"counterfactual" approach. They identified existing areas of forest within a given region that closely resemble each particular REDD+ project—from matching levels of forest cover and soil fertility to similar records of mining and deforestation.
Even the remaining 32% of carbon credits originated from REDD+ projects that had not conserved forest to the levels claimed by the project developers.
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