Parties in power tend to lose seats in midterms, so the result of Mexico’s midterm elections is not entirely surprising
PRESIDENT ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR was not on the ballot, but Mexico’s mid-term elections, held on June 6th, were largely a referendum on his polarising performance. Voters selected representatives to the lower house of the national legislature and 30 of the 32 state congresses, as well as governors of 15 of the country’s 32 states and thousands of local posts.
Parties in power tend to lose seats in mid-terms, so the result is not entirely surprising. With most of the initial count complete, Morena is likely to drop from 256 of 500 seats in the lower house to somewhere between 190 and 203. Adding in seats controlled by allied parties, its overall majority will probably fall to somewhere between 265 and 292. Mr López Obrador will now have to negotiate, albeit with his allies, to pass laws.
Still, Morena has expanded its national footprint. Initial counts suggest its coalition has won eleven of the 15 contested governorships, and will probably also dominate local congresses in those states. However in the capital, long a bastion for leftist parties and for Mr López Obrador himself who was once its mayor, it bled seats.
The denting of Mr López Obrador’s power appears to have come from the middle class, much of which supported Morena in 2018. Many are disappointed with the president’s record. Despite some successes, such as a sizable minimum-wage rise, he has failed to tackle high levels of crime and corruption—though that view is not universal. Outside a polling station in Mexico City’s well-heeled Roma neighbourhood, María Teresa Crespo said she was “very happy with the government.
But the economy shrank by 8.5% last year—a contraction caused largely by the pandemic but worsened by Mr López Obrador’s refusal to spend money to cushion its impact and penchant for revoking contracts. Worse, he has undermined democracy by
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