Mexico's Role in U.S. Food Imports and Potential Impact on Consumer Prices

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Mexico's Role in U.S. Food Imports and Potential Impact on Consumer Prices
MexicoU.S. ImportsConsumer Prices
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Analyzing Mexico's significant contribution to U.S. vegetable and fruit imports and the potential impact on consumer prices if tariffs on imported goods are implemented. The U.S. imports 64% of its vegetables and 46% of its fruits from Mexico, with horticultural exports quadrupling between 2000 and 2021. Lower labor costs and favorable seasonality have driven Mexico's growth in this sector.

And among the countries of origin for those products, Mexico is the biggest contributor — meaning U.S. consumers could see higher prices for a range of grocery and produce items ifOverall, Mexico made up 64% of U.S. vegetable imports and 46% percent of U.S. fruit and nut imports in 2021, according to the data from UC Davis. Between 2000 and 2021, the value of Mexico ’s horticultural exports into the U.S. quadrupled, the university estimates.

Beer is included in those categories and a huge share of American drinkers could face higher costs too, given the popularity of Corona and Modelo, the latter of which is now the No. 1 brew in the U.S.Mexico’s gains as a source of U.S. food imports are the result of lower labor costs — in some cases one-fifth those of U.S. farm worker compensation — and more favorable seasonality, meaning in certain cases, the products come in fresher because they can be grown year round.

Meanwhile, those same economists continue to sound the alarm that Trump's overall tariffs proposals, which would also include slapping 25% duties on Canadian imports and an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, would reignite inflation. In a new note, analysts at Goldman Sachs Yet the analysts also insisted Trump's announcement appears to be more of a"negotiating tactic" rather than an avowal of action.

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