Tornado experts say the winter’s record warmth provided the key ingredient for a Midwest outbreak of deadly tornadoes and damaging gorilla hail that hit parts of the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday.
Debris scatters the ground near damaged homes following a severe storm Friday, March 15, 2024, in Lakeview, Ohio.
But instability, which is that juicy warm humid air close to the ground that is the signature of summer, is usually missing this time of year, Gensini and Brooks said. “When we're warmer than normal we tend to get more warm tornadoes in the winter time,” Brooks said. “It's not necessarily a causal affect, perhaps they're both happening because of the same thing.”Hunter Vance, 27, of Lakeview, Ohio, was talking with a friend on the phone when sirens began to blare. So he sought shelter inside his bathtub for 20 minutes. Then he came out to see the devastation.“And it’s never been worse than this,” he added.
NOAA's Elliott said it may be a tad early, but this is about the time of year that severe storms start to ramp up in the Midwest, but they do not usually peak until May.only killed two peopleWhat also makes the Midwest outbreaks unusual is that there's an El Nino, though it is starting to fade. The natural El Nino, which is a warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide, often leads to fewer severe storms in the Midwest especially in the spring, studies show..
Gensini has not made any formal attribution studies, but said “if you look at the recent Februaries and Marches in terms of the number of tornadoes, it's pretty easy to see that a change is happening," comparing it to the effect of steroids on baseball home runs in the 1990s and early 2000s.Because of other natural climate factors, Gensini said there's a strong chance for another Midwest outbreak of tornadoes in the end of March or early April.
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