Plus, North Carolina’s path to the NCAA tournament narrows with the first of two rivalry games against Duke looming on Saturday.
The calendar is about to flip to February, and when that happens the pressure to punch tickets to March Madness levels up a few notches. The last week produced some epic games with significant tournament implications, from Houston’s near-impossible rally past Kansas to Caleb Love’s half-court heave that helped Arizona to a signature win.
How are those key results moving the projected men’s NCAA tournament field? Here’s a look atThree SEC teams currently sit among our final eight teams in, and a fourth isn’t far above that threshold. The story line all bubble teams will be watching: How many conference wins will it take to sneak into the field for the SEC’s bubble? Will the committee take a team at 7–11 or even 6–12 in the sport’s best conference over a team with a better record in a weaker league? The path to the dance for North Carolina continues to narrow after the Heels lost Tuesday night at Pittsburgh. It’s becoming increasingly clear the Heels will need a win over Duke to feel at all secure about their tournament hopes, and might need to win out in its non-Duke games without one just to stay in the mix.No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 9 West Virginia MountaineersNo. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders*No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles*No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings* Kentucky added yet another elite win to its ledger Tuesday night, 78–73 on the road at Tennessee for the Wildcats’ fifth victory of the season over a team currently ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll. Those top-tier wins mean the Wildcats’ seeding floor feels incredibly high, with even a handful of more losses not likely to knock Mark Pope’s team out of the top four seed lines. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is also on an upward trajectory, with five straight wins after beating TCU on Wednesday. The next three games provide some major opportunities to boost the Red Raiders’ resume, starting with a trip to face Houston on Saturday.No. 8 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt CommodoresNo. 6 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 11 UCF Knights/Texas LonghornsNo. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos*St. John’s presents some interesting seeding challenges as a potential high-major conference champion that still lacks much meat on the bone from a résumé standpoint. For now, SJU has just one Quad 1 win, at Xavier in early January. Three of the Red Storm’s next four should be Quad 1 games, and Rick Pitino’s team could rocket up the seed list with wins there. Vanderbilt hasn’t gone dancing since the 2016–17 season, but the Commodores are on track to hear their name called on Selection Sunday after a big win over Kentucky over the weekend. Vandy’s magic number is likely four: Four more SEC wins should have them in the field.No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 9 Baylor BearsNo. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. No. 15 Norfolk State Spartans* Houston finally has its signature win, winning at Allen Fieldhouse for the first time in Kelvin Sampson’s career Saturday in thrilling fashion. That helps the Cougars, whose quality-based metrics are the best in the country, climb up to the No. 2 line despite its lack of Quad 1 wins. The longer UH stays undefeated in a league like the Big 12, the more the Cougars will climb up the seed list. Meanwhile, Baylor continues to inch closer to the cut line after losing Tuesday in overtime to BYU. As things currently stand, the Bears have just one win against the field, a neutral-court win over St. John’s in mid-November. Scott Drew’s team needs to stack a few more of those to avoid being in real danger of missing the Big Dance.No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 Ohio State BuckeyesNo. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles* vs. No. 14 Bryant Bulldogs*No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 William & Mary Tribe* Arizona’s thrilling win over Iowa State has the Wildcats surging up the seed list. Since a 4–5 start, the Wildcats have won 10 of 11, adding four Quad 1 wins. Five of Arizona’s next six are likely to be Quad 1 games, so Tommy Lloyd’s team will get plenty more chances to climb in the coming weeks. One more recent needle-mover is Maryland, which solved its biggest problem emphatically last week with wins over Illinois and Indiana. The Terps should now be safely in the field, save for a collapse in February.Kevin Sweeney is a staff writer at Sports Illustrated covering college basketball and the NBA draft. He joined the SI staff in July 2021 and also serves host and analyst for The Field of 68. Sweeney is a Naismith Trophy voter and ia member of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association. He is a graduate of Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism.
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