Today's America is so deeply polarized that it can be hard to imagine there are people who are really not sure whether they want to vote for President Donald Trump or his Democratic rival.But these "mythic," "quasi-talismanic," "unicorn" swing voters are very real, and
Today’s America is so deeply polarized that it can be hard to imagine there are people who are really not sure whether they want to vote for President Donald Trump or his Democratic rival.
They don’t neatly fit archetypes of swing voters like suburban soccer moms. In fact, men are likelier to be undecided than women. And they are not necessarily the white voters without a college degree, particularly in the Midwest, who decided the last election. In the last presidential election, millions of voters flipped from Barack Obama to Trump or from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton. In the Midwestern battlegrounds, the flood of white, working-class defections to Trump overwhelmed the smaller stream of white, college-educated voters who defected from the Republicans.
The size of that persuadable pool depends on how they are defined. Although there is reason to think some voters have more of a partisan lean than they realize, let’s call the 15% who are still thinking of voting for Trump or a Democrat the potentially persuadable. Trump leads Warren, 49% to 27%, among this broadly defined group of persuadable voters, slightly improving on his margin over Clinton. He holds a narrow 43-37 edge over Biden, a slight improvement for the president over the Republican performance in the midterm election but far from matching his tallies in 2016.
Looking at the full pool of potential persuadables, it can be hard to glean any clear insights. But individual demographic groups present a clearer picture of voters pulled in different directions by their ideology, identity, self-interest or attitudes about the president. Basart is not a fan of Trump’s personality, but he says it’s overshadowing some of his accomplishments.
The undecided white working-class voters often seem as if they would be quite receptive to Democrats based on their views on the issues. They support single-payer health care, for instance.
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