How the fate of Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy's downfall as House Speaker was foreshadowed eight years before January 7, 2023, when he was elected to the position.
Past is prologue. It was October 2015. An unseasonably warm, autumnal light bathed a corridor near the Hall of Columns on the first floor of the Capitol. It was mid-afternoon. But the well-trafficked hall was surprisingly empty when I encountered a lawmaker who was a friend and occasional ally of then-House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. Then-House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, unexpectedly announced his retirement just a few days before. McCarthy was poised to assume the speakership.
But McCarthy may have been a better vote counter than people gave him credit for. McCarthy eventually became speaker in January. After drama of the highest order, McCarthy managed to wrangle enough votes on a GOP abortion bill, a GOP-only debt ceiling bill, a bipartisan debt ceiling package, the Republican defense appropriations bill, and yes, the stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown last weekend. The speaker referred to the latter maneuver as a 'gamble.
When asked early Tuesday, McCarthy said he was confident he would 'hold on' by nightfall. Yours truly followed up with the former speaker live on Fox around 2 p.m. just off the floor as he walked to the chamber. The House was voting on whether or not to kill the effort by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., to extract McCarthy from the speakership. 'Do you stand by the idea that you’re going to be speaker of the House tonight?' I asked. 'Yes,' answered McCarthy.
Late on the night of Jan. 6, 2023, the House had completed its 14th consecutive roll call vote without electing a speaker. The plan was for the House to adjourn for a few days and allow Republicans to regroup. The House was about to adopt the motion to adjourn. Most lawmakers suspected that McCarthy was toast if the House broke for the weekend. Time was not on his side. McCarthy’s chances of becoming speaker would only calcify as members went home for a couple of days.
McCarthy made it to the gas station. But there was no more fuel. McCarthy finally clasped the gavel. But not for long. This was the fate McCarthy’s oracle prophesied on that sunny afternoon in the Hall of Columns at the Capitol eight autumns ago. This was McCarthy’s kismet. And if McCarthy was ever going to be speaker, that destiny was seemingly guaranteed years ago.
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