Stats SA has written a response to the article by Imraan Valodia which states that the claim that SA’s economy has declined by 51% is a misrepresentation of the facts.
Statistics agencies across the globe subscribe to the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. The second principle stresses the need to retain trust in official statistics. It is for this reason that Stats SA makes decisions according to strictly professional considerations, including scientific principles and professional ethics, on the methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage and presentation of statistical data.
“However, in instances where the quarterly data may fluctuate in a dramatic fashion, as has been the case with the Covid-19 and the lockdown, this calculation, to annualise the estimate, is highly misleading…”seasonally adjusted and annualised rateAn annualised growth rate shows what growth would be over a full year if the quarter-on-quarter growth rate were to occur four times in succession.
As the national statistics agency, Stats SA must remain impartial to any interference, political or otherwise, in the production of official statistics. One way to reassure the public that its work is not being meddled with is to maintain consistency in its methodology and reporting of statistics. The Statistician-General is not free to chop and change which measure of growth to highlight from one quarter to the next, depending on particular outcomes.
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