Breaking down the matchups and identifying an x-factor in Game 2 of Marlins-Phillies.
on the mound. Win and go to Atlanta. Lose and set up an elimination game. At the risk of offering unsolicited advice to the Phillies, my suggestion is that they should do their best to win Game 2, then.The Marlins have been a plucky bunch all season, though, and Nola hasn’t been himself this year, so there’s definitely a chance for Game 3 chaos. As much as I miss the one-and-done wild-card game, there’s something spectacularly and beautifully cruel about Game 3 chaos.
The Phillies would probably prefer to score seven runs in the first inning, but where’s the fun in that? Think of the sickos.Nola’s had a season like this before, back in 2021, with a stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio but middling results. While his ERA was never under 4.25 at any point in the season — save for the first three innings of his initial start — he’s still missing bats and throwing strikes. More importantly from the Phillies’ perspective, they’ve won eight of Nola’s last nine starts.
Garrett had two of his shortest outings of the season in September, but he’s had a 3.09 ERA since May 14, which is almost exactly what his season ERA would have been without theclobbering him for 14 earned runs in his sixth start of the season. The Phillies, however, hit left-handed starters well, and Garrett had a pair of nearly identical 5 IP, 3 ER starts against them this year.
First off, mentioning Soler is just an excuse to embed a picture of his gigantic dog for the 700th time.But Nola’s problem this season has been giving up too many homers. Soler’s whole deal is hitting too many homers, although he’s never hit one off Nola in 18 plate appearances. If the Marlins are going to get to a Game 3, someone’s going to have to hit some home runs, with“J.T. had to wait eight years, and Orion had to wait, like, three days.”Get all-access to exclusive stories.
Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the San Francisco Giants. Grant has written about the Giants since 2003 and covered Major League Baseball for SB Nation from 2011 to 2019. He is a two-time recipient of the SABR Analytics Research Award.
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