Market Overview Analysis by Michael Kramer covering: USD/JPY, NVIDIA Corporation, S&P 500 Futures, VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Read Michael Kramer's latest article on Investing.com
While the Fed will capture most of the focus in the U.S., the BOJ may be more significant, especially if they signal that more rate hikes are likely if the economy continues to develop as expected.
However, this week may bring a change, as the TGA could rise by as much as $200 billion—common around tax deadlines—which would unwind much of last week’s liquidity increase and more, potentially lowering reserves from $3.4 trillion to around $3.2 trillion. Overall, liquidity conditions are expected to tighten between now and the end of September, driven by a rising TGA and, more importantly, quarter-end reverse repo activity. It’s possible that, by the end of the quarter, reserve balances could drop below $3 trillion for the first time since December 2022.carry trade has been unwinding for the most part.
Sometimes, changes in liquidity coincide with the rolling of e-mini contracts, for example, from the September to December contracts. However, in this case, the overall top-of-book liquidity has deteriorated since the beginning of July.
NVIDIA Corporation S&P 500 Futures Vaneck Semiconductor ETF
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