The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is supposed to oversee prediction markets, where traders are cashing in on Donald Trump's Iran announcements.
issued an incendiary threat to Iranian leaders: Open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or the United States would “obliterate” the country’s power plants. Then, shortly before U.S. traders returned to work on Monday, Trump backed off the bluster, posting that the U.
S. andhad, over the weekend, engaged in “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.” Markets, predictably, rallied on the news. The timing of both announcements reeked of manipulation, but, more damning, an extraordinary volume of unusual trades appeared on oil futures markets shortly before Trump’s second post walking back his threat. trades in crude oil contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures, contracts for Brent crude, as well as some $1.5 billion in S&P futures contracts — all made roughly 15 minutes before Trump issued his statement. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul KrugmanWho profited from the trades? That’s what Sens. Chris Murphy and Andy Kim would like to know. “ $1.5 BILLION BET. Bigger than any futures purchases made at the time. 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer?” Murphy posted. “This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption.” Kim echoed the sentiment in his own post: “Someone made a fortune,” he wrote. “We need immediate investigations into these trades.” is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — but don’t expect the CFTC to bring the hammer down anytime soon. Under the Biden administration, the agency was beginning to scrutinize the legality of markets like Kalshi and Polymarket: In 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarketfor operating as an unregistered commodities market, and banned the company from operating in the U.S. It went to court in an attempt to stop Kalshi, which was registered, from accepting bets that were based on the outcome of political events.about whether it intends to investigate the mysterious trades made around Trump’s Monday announcement. Investigations into insider trading generally have ground to a halt under Trump. At the CFTC’s sister agency, the Security and Exchange Commission, enforcementwhen Trump returned to the White House in 2025. Just last week, the SEC’s top enforcement officer Margaret Ryan abruptly resigned, with CNBCRyan “clashed with agency leaders over the direction of its enforcement program, including the handling of cases with ties toArmy Sec. Was Told Trump Wouldn’t Want to Stand Next to Black Female Officer: ReportKalshi and Polymarket this week rushed to address growing outrage about insider trading on their platforms, amid nascent efforts in theit was updating its own rules to prohibit trading “on stolen confidential information,” “illegal tips,” or on any events of which the user might be able to “influence the outcome.” Kalshi meanwhileit would ban both politicians from trading on their own campaigns, and anyone involved in college or professional sports from betting on the sports in which they are involved. Members in the House introduced the PREDICT Act, short for Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading, on Wednesday. The bill would bar members of both Congress and the executive branch, including the president, as well as their family members and senior staff, from betting on events Bruce Springsteen Says His Upcoming Land of Hope and Dreams Tour ‘Is Going to Be Political’that when the U.S. struck Iran, “We realized that there were a very small handful of new Polymarket traders that got online with very precise information — perhaps information that might not otherwise be known unless you were within government, in a senior level role — and to know that those people benefited from a military strike by our own country to the tune of over a million dollars, it led us to expediting filing this legislation.”Disney Exits OpenAI Deal After AI Giant Shutters Sora Princess Beatrice Sparks Divorce Rumors With Husband After Dad Andrew’s Arrest: ‘He’s Been Pulling Away’Amazon Has Tons of Deals on Women’s Jeans From Levi’s, NYDJ & More – Here Are the Best, Starting at $26
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