A market rocked by a banking crisis faces a potential one-two punch as investors await a U.S. inflation report that could further complicate views on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
Until the recent instability in the banking sector, markets had been fixated on inflation data as perhaps the most significant factor behind asset price moves because of the influence on the Fed's rate-hiking path.moving an average of 1.8% in either direction on those days against an average 1.2% daily move overall in that time frame.
Those shifting generations have generated huge moves in Treasury yields. On Friday, yields on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond saw their biggest drop since 2008. A hot consumer price report was always going to be problematic for markets, but now "you have this financial stability dynamic interjected into the equation, which further complicates the Fed’s job," said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital.
"That might lead to a partial reversal of the recent rally in bonds, worsening the problems in the banking sector," Capital Economics said in a note.
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