March Madness survivor pools are entering the time when you must debate a conventional pick against a contrarian pick.
Make no mistake about your March Madness survivor entry in the Sweet Sixteen. You are no longer picking just one game. Inherent to every decision you make from here on out, you are effectively picking every remaining game in the NCAA Tournament.
First of all, looking at the South Regional, the risk inherent to Iowa vs. Nebraska is not worth pondering. The Cornhuskers are favored by only a bucket — -1.5 at bet365 — after the rivals split two games already this season, including their regular-season finale heading to overtime in Nebraska. And whoever wins the Illinois vs. Houston game should be your reserved pick to advance out of the East Regional, set to be favored by multiple buckets in the Elite Eight. That leaves the “Purdue or Arizona ” wonder in the West Regional. Both are favored by three buckets. Both have decisive matchup edges — Texas is vulnerable against quality backcourts; Arkansas should not try to outrun the Wildcats. If you manage to make it to the weekend, you'll have to decide who will win the Purdue vs. Arizona matchup anyway. That is the stressor of this puzzle at this stage. Your best way of avoiding any “Purdue or Arizona” wonder would be to lock the winter into the national championship game while also staking your survival on Iowa vs. Nebraska. You have better odds simply deciding on “Purdue or Arizona.” More entries will take the Wildcats into the Final Four, meaning they'll take the Boilermakers on Thursday. That logic is sound; Arizona will be favored in this hypothetical Elite Eight matchup, though one might wonder if that spread will be within a bucket given Purdue’s preferred plodding pace. That sets up taking the Wildcats in the Sweet Sixteen as the contrarian choice, the one that theoretically provides more value in your large pools. Making a bet because it is contrarian is always a test of fortitude, the logic’s validity entirely depending on your risk tolerance. But let’s put it this way: Yours truly has 10 survivor bids alive across four different leagues. Seven of those entries will be on Arizona on Thursday.They rank third to last in the country in the rate at which they take 3-pointers, chucking from deep on barely more than a quarter of their field-goal attempts. That reluctance creates worry if Arizona ever falls behind or tries to keep up with a 3-point shooting team. Purdue shoots from beyond the arc on more than 40% of its field-goal attempts while ranking No. 8 in the country by making 38.8% of those deep shots. This contrarian approach also firmly believes the Boilermakers will knock off the Wildcats on Saturday, which is worth considering when making your Thursday survivor pick.Thus far this tournament, these thoughts have also included “Also considered” mentions. For Friday of the Sweet Sixteen, no one else was considered. The first person to tell you they have a strong conviction of who will win Michigan State vs. Connecticut is lying to you. Duke should be favored by multiple buckets against either team in the Elite Eight, so you certainly cannot snag the Blue Devils in the Sweet Sixteen.Could fully healthy Iowa State knock off Michigan on Sunday? Absolutely. The Cyclones play a physical brand of basketball that, quite frankly, should keep any opposing head coach awake at night. But with star forward Joshua Jefferson’s status murky, faith cannot be put in Iowa State. The Cyclones should beat Tennessee with or without Jefferson. After all, we're talking about Rick Barnes as an underdog in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. He is 0-5 in those moments in his career. And the Iowa State hope certainly is that Jefferson will be on the court on Friday, though one can then worry that action will aggravate his ankle injury enough to temper his production against Michigan on Sunday. All of which is to say, there is no conventional or contrarian debate on Friday. There is only Iowa State.: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Illinois State vs Dayton Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's NIT Quarterfinal GameNets vs Warriors Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA GameSpurs vs Grizzlies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game2026 March Madness Predictions: Bracket Picks & FuturesIowa vs Nebraska Prediction, Picks & Odds for Thursday's March Madness GameIf you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
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