The March CPI report will be a key indication of whether the pickup in inflation at the start of 2024 was a function of early-year noise or if inflation's journey back to the Fed's target has been drawn out materially.
Summary The March CPI report will be a key indication of whether the pickup in inflation at the start of 2024 was a function of early-year noise or if inflation's journey back to the Fed's target has been drawn out materially. We believe it will show hints of both dynamics at play. Headline CPI likely rose by 0.4% for a second straight month, which would push the year-over-year rate up to a six-month high of 3.5%. Excluding food and energy, we estimate prices rose 0.
Core services inflation, however, was likely little changed as a further moderation in shelter costs was offset by a pickup in services ex-housing. Looking beyond March, we expect inflation to move lower this year. However, progress will be more of a grind ahead. A rebound in commodity costs have turned food and energy from tailwinds to headwinds. Meantime, supply chain strains are no longer easing.
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