Managing Unpredictability in Projects

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Managing Unpredictability in Projects
PROJECT MANAGEMENTAGILE METHODLOGYUNCERTAINTY
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This article proposes vertical slicing as a tool for managing unpredictability in projects, drawing on agile methodology principles. It highlights the constant change in the business environment and the importance of adapting to smaller-scale uncertainties.

Today’s business environment is characterized by constant change on a macro scale, but in our daily lives, it’s often the smaller unpredictabilities that threaten to derail our projects and decisions. This article draws on the agile methodology to offer project leaders a tool for managing unpredictability: vertical slicing. Each slice builds on the previous one to flesh out a large-scale initiative.

If the past five years have taught us anything, it’s that change is still the only constant in business. We’ve had to navigate a global pandemic, geopolitical crises, supply chain disruptions, a shift to hybrid work, and the rise of generative artificial intelligence. As former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld would put it, we’re facing many more “unknown unknowns” than “known unknowns” nowadays. But in our daily work lives, it’s often the smaller-scale unpredictabilities that threaten to derail our projects and decisions, particularly under unfamiliar circumstances brought on by macro events.Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Project Management. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Project Management. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies

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