Receivers you should beware of in drafts, or who could fail to meet expectations based on a previous high level of fantasy success.
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers could be a major risk in 2026 fantasy football drafts. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Wide receivers have become the most important position in fantasy football, so you have to avoid potential busts at all costs, as they can be detrimental to your chances of taking home a fantasy football championship.
Just ask any manager who drafted Justin Jefferson or Ladd McConkey a season ago, as it was tough to make up for their poor level of production. Looking ahead to 2026, I’ve projected 10 different wideouts, each with a level of risk; either I’m projecting the player to fail to meet expectations based on his ADP, or he is coming off a huge statistical season that he won’t duplicate.
So, let’s call these receivers you should beware of in drafts, or who could fail to meet expectations based on a previous high level of fantasy success. Olave is coming off what can be described as a magical season, as he had career highs across the board en route to a WR6 finish in PR leagues. The question: Can he do it again? Well, I think it’ll be tough.
First off, Olave avoided injuries for the first time in a few years, which allowed him to start 16 games for the first time in his career. Second, the Saints added Travis Etienne Jr. and Jordyn Tyson to the offense. That will mean a dent in the 10 targets a game he averaged in 2025. Olave should remain productive, but regression is imminent.
We’ve all been waiting for Wilson to have that true breakout season, but will we be waiting in vain? He was solid when he was active last season, but he missed 10 games due to injuries.
Wilson was also seeing a massive target share in the offense, and that is almost a lock to decrease after the Jets added rookies Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. The team will also have Adonai Mitchell for a full season, and let’s not forget about Mason Taylor. Gang Green is not exactly set at quarterback, either, as Geno Smith might be an upgrade over last season’s mess, but he’s certainly not great.
All of this has me questioning Wilson’s true ceiling. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Nabers has become a big question mark. He had a major knee reconstruction last year, and he required a clean-up procedure in May to relieve some stiffness. The Giants have also added a boatload of middling wide receivers, a list that includes 33-year-old Odell Beckham Jr., to add depth if Nabers is ready for training camp or Week 1.
There’s even been talk that he could open the season on the PUP list, and it could take time for him to return to his previous fantasy greatness. So, if you’re still planning on drafting Nabers, it should be with the expectation that you’re not going to get high-end totals. Adams led all wide receivers in touchdown catches last season, averaging a solid 16.8 points per game.
However, he did miss a few games with a hamstring injury, and the Rams were actively looking to either trade him or upgrade at the position during the offseason . That’s concerning, as is the fact that Adams is heading into his age-33 season. Everything went right with the Rams passing attack last year, too, especially with Matthew Stafford, and that’s unlikely to be the scenario again in 2026.
I’d beware of Adams. The Broncos gave up multiple draft picks, including a 2026 first-rounder , in exchange for Waddle. While that’s a win for the offense and Bo Nix, it’s a bit less of a positive move for Waddle’s fantasy value. That’s due in large part to a potential target share decline from the 25.6% he saw in 2025 games without Tyreek Hill.
The Broncos wide receiver room is loaded, including Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, so Waddle’s role might not be as consistent as it was last year in Miami. He’ll be a risky WR2 in drafts. If you’re into volatility, Williams is the wide receiver for you. In 2025, he was nearly impossible to trust in fantasy lineups, scoring single digits seven times.
He also posted a few huge games, finishing with 16-plus points eight times. Overall, his 12.9 point-per-game average wasn’t much better than Quentin Johnston , yet the differences in their early ADP data is astounding. While talented and capable of putting up a big number at any moment, Williams’s lack of consistency and rock-bottom floor makes him tough to trust.
Evans has been one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football over the past decade, but even the greats see their statistical success come to an end. And, at age 33, that time has come for Evans. He’s coming off an injury plagued 2025 season that saw him miss nine games, and his 10.6 points-per-game average was a career worst.
Older wide receivers who change teams late in their careers are rarely as productive with their new squads, so it’s hard to see a scenario where Evans improves over his 2025 totals. Metcalf was a disappointment last season, ranking as the WR23 despite being the primary passing-game option for Aaron Rodgers.
The offense will have a much different look in 2026 with new coach Mike McCarthy, but the additions of Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Germie Bernard could shrink Metcalf’s target share. At this point, he is no more than a flex starter who could and will likely remain inconsistent. Wilson busted out last season, finishing as the WR10 in PPR leagues. So, why would he be considered a player to beware of?
Well, his splits in games with and without Marvin Harrison Jr. are, well, disturbing. In 10 games where Harrison played at least 20 snaps, Wilson averaged 6.2 points. In the seven games Harrison played fewer than 20 snaps or was out, Wilson’s average swelled to 22.6 points. The eight-game stretch where he averaged 21.2 points is also unsustainable, so Wilson will be hard-pressed to not experience regression.
The fantasy community is a year late on this prediction, but I also don’t see Thomas being a major bounce-back candidate. Let’s be honest: Most of his fantasy success came in a different offense and with Mac Jones, not Trevor Lawrence, under center. In eight career games played with Jones, BTJ averaged 19.3 points. In 23 games with Lawrence, that average falls to 12.2 points .
If you’re going to target a Jacksonville wide receiver, it should be Parker Washington, not Thomas. Michael Fabiano is a fantasy football analyst for Sports Illustrated. His weekly rankings and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em articles are must-reads for fantasy players. He is also the co-host of the Fantasy Dirt Podcast on SI.
Before joining SI in August 2020, he worked for CBS Sports, NFL Network and SiriusXM. He also contributes to Westwood One Radio. Fabiano was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
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