All candidates in the Makerfield by-election are aligned in opposing Keir Starmer, making the contest a de facto referendum on the Prime Minister. Labour seeks to retain the seat while facing a divided opposition between Reform UK and Restore Britain, with on-the-ground dynamics suggesting Labour holds an advantage despite right-wing infighting.
The recent Makerfield parliamentary by-election has become a unique battleground where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are united in a single objective: to oppose Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour government.
This unanimity against the incumbent Prime Minister is unprecedented in modern by-election history, turning every vote into a protest against Starmer's leadership. The contest primarily revolves around whether Labour's Andy Burnham can position himself as a credible agent of change, distinct from his party's current turmoil, or if Nigel Farage's Reform UK can overcome challenges including a candidate with a controversial past and vote splitting from Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party.
Polls have shown Labour leading with 49 percent, Reform at 39 percent, and Restore at 8 percent, though a Labour-commissioned poll suggests Restore could surge to 13 percent, potentially siphoning right-leaning voters from Reform and benefitting Labour. However, on-the-ground observations indicate Restore's presence is minimal; the party's candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is notably absent from public events and media engagements, relying instead on social media clips amplified by Elon Musk.
In contrast, Farage has been actively campaigning, attending rallies and addressing media, focusing on issues like tax simplification and VAT thresholds while dismissing Restore's impact as soft and rooted in former BNP support. Lowe retaliates, accusing Farage of political assassination and promising a strong street presence before polling day. The mutual animosity between Farage and Lowe underscores a fractured right-wing vote, which Labour hopes will secure a victory despite Burnham's efforts to distance himself from Starmer's legacy.
Betting odds currently favour Labour, but the final outcome hinges on whether right-leaning voters can consolidate behind a single alternative or remain divided, handing the seat to Labour and further cementing Starmer's parliamentary majority
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