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Vice President Kamala Harris’s national polling lead in half since last week. He now trails by 0.9 points, having narrowed the gap from 1.7., which was already down from the 25-point lead they boasted on Oct. 4. The lead changed hands multiple times since Thursday, but Republicans are currentlyby 1 point to control the House, with bettors giving them a 50.5% chance compared to a 49.5% chance for the Democrats.
Bettors last week gave Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick a 23.4% chance to upset Sen. Bob Casey , Michigan Republican Mike Rogers a 26.5% chance to beat Rep. Elissa Slotkin , and Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde a 23.5% chance of ousting Sen. Tammy Baldwin . Tightening their races two weeks out from Election Day, McCormick’s winning probability is now up to 31.5%, while Rogers is up to 32.7%, and Hovde is up to 31.8%.
Heavy betting favorites Gallego and Rosen currently lead by 6.3 and 5.4 points in the polls, respectively, while vulnerable Democratic Senators Casey, 1.9, Slotkin, 2.1, Baldwin, 2, and Brown, 0.6, lead by thinner margins.There are generally considered to be seven swing states in the 2024 presidential election, and Trump is winning all of them in the odds and polls. They are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.
Harris’s best chance to expand the electoral map would be to win Florida, Iowa, Ohio, or Texas. Bettors give her a 6.5% chance to win each Republican-leaning state, while Trump leads in the polls in Florida by 5.9, Iowa by 5, Ohio by 6.4, and Texas by 5.7.
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