France faces its worst political crisis in years after a no-confidence vote toppled the government. The president must quickly appoint a new PM to navigate a fragmented Parliament and restore stability.
French President Emmanuel Macron makes a television address to the nation after Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government was toppled in a no confidence vote in parliament, in Paris, France, December 5, 2024. / Photo: Reuters
He is now facing the daunting task of appointing his fourth Prime Minister of 2024, with a deeply fragmented National Assembly and new elections impossible until the summer.Barnier's task was to pass his proposed budget for 2025, which sought to reduce France's widening public deficit through a mix of spending cuts and tax rises. After weeks of deadlock, Barnier attempted to push through a social security bill without Parliament's approval.
Despite Barnier trying his best to placate her, Le Pen pulled the plug last week, sealing his fate. Macron's gamble on her support spectacularly failed when she decided to stay true to her roots, satisfying her electorate by demonstrating that she remained anti-system with no intention of helping Macron out.Barnier's government has stayed on in a caretaker capacity, handling day-to-day business until a new government is appointed. However, his fall is not without any consequences.
The real issue is the impact a period of political uncertainty could have on the financial markets and the economy. Interest rates on French bonds rose in the run-up to the vote of non-confidence, even briefly exceeding those of Greece, a country usually considered riskier. Macron may have always strived to push the EU towards greater unity, but his voice is increasingly drowned out, as evidenced by the EU Commission forging ahead with theMacron addressed the French nation last Thursday. After taking the gloves off to blame the crisis on an anti-Republican front andProfessors Robert Tombs and John Keiger discuss France's constitutional crisis.Notably, Macron does not have the luxury of time if he wants to fend off rising calls for his resignation.
Appointing a PM from the Left or, at the very least, striking a non-aggression and non-censure pact with this bloc for a centrist-led government, would reflect a respect for the July election results.The next few days will tell us whether France is heading towards a political meltdown, with potentially drastic economic consequences, or whether Macron can steady the ship and avoid his presidency deteriorating further.
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