College football odds, picks and prediction for LSU Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles. Week 1 betting free pick and game analysis.
turned a lot of decent pockets into pressures and scrambles last season. A want to note that is not anecdotal, but measured and something likely to repeat itself in 2023.’s strong defensive line, led by touted NFL prospect Jared Verse and three notable transfers, including tackle Braden Fiske from Western Michigan.
A want to wonder just how strong LSU’s offensive line will be — and it should be strong — despite having no known depth. But that deep dive will not yield a best bet. It will simply gush over Verse and marvel at the thought of Daniels being protected from him. And if the Tigers do protect Daniels, then LSU will have no trouble on Sunday night.In some respects, 2022 was a disappointment for the Tigers. Yes, even as they went 10-4 and reached the SEC championship game. Brian Kelly made some mistakes he had not made in years. In his last four years at Notre Dame, Kelly went 25-14-1 against the spread as a favorite, going 40-0 outright in those games. He figured out how to win the games he was supposed to win, an underrated and underappreciated skill in college football. His first year in Baton Rouge did not enjoy that consistency, going 5-4-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as a favorite. But that should have been expected. Kelly was taking over a program in turmoil and turning over much of the roster. Things are more stable now. Look no further than finding a new special teams coordinator after repeated gaffes with that unit cost the Tigers this exact matchup in 2022. With months to prepare, leaning into Kelly’s know-how makes sense. Mike Norvell has done an impressive job rebuilding the entire Seminoles program in relatively short order. The progress along both lines, in particular, deserves praise. Yet, for all the preseason hype surrounding Florida State, it went just 6-4 ATS as a favorite last season. In Norvell’s three seasons in Tallahassee, the Seminoles are merely 8-9 ATS as favorites. To this weekend’s point, Florida State is 6-5 ATS as a one-possession underdog during Norvell’s tenure, including 2-1 last season. The Seminoles have gone 3-8 outright in those moments, including 1-2 last year, the one win coming courtesy of LSU’s botched special teams. Managing 6-5 ATS as a one-possession underdog yet 3-8 outright speaks to some close-game difficulties that could arguably be pinpointed on coaching. These rosters have both turned over a bit since last season, the transfer portal working its magic. But for the most part, they are what they were, just a bit older and more coalesced. The hype is a bit abundant with each, perhaps too much so. But the difference in the known commodities of head coaches is stark. Brian Kelly has proven himself in games he is supposed to win. Mike Norvell is still inconsistent in that regard, even as an underdog. In a game within a field goal, siding with a coach with that proven record as a favorite makes some sense. Just remember to watch how Daniels handles Verse’s pressure for the long-term lesson.
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