Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government
What if they held a tumultuous election, with an early one-sided debate, a candidate substitution, and third-party withdrawal, and no voters changed their minds? Well, that’s not exactly what has happened in America’s 60th presidential election year, but it’s not so far off, either.Democratic National Convention nominate, for the fourth time in the party’s history, the incumbent vice president. The last one to win was Martin Van Buren in 1836.
In contrast, the convention bounces in election years 2004 to 2020 have averaged only 1.8 points. That seems to have resulted from increased partisan polarization and reduced convention viewership. With post-convention only starting to come in, McKown-Dawson sees a small bounce, with “the caveat here … that Harris’s bounce might already have happened.”
Silver estimates, plausibly, that there will be less of an Electoral College edge for Trump this year, if only because his increased support from Hispanic and black people will tend to reduce Democratic margins in those heavily Democratic states. And he points out, reasonably, that while polling may have understated Trump’s support in 2020 and 2016, there’s no guarantee it will this year.
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