Last week was chaotic.
The Fed eral Reserve’s hawkish 25bp cut, the hint from the dot plot that there would be only two rate cuts next year instead of four – because the US economy is too strong to continue the cuts as previously predicted - and the US debt limit shenanigans even before Trump took office gave a negative jolt to the US stock markets.
Yet, beyond tactical trades based on last week’s softer-than-expected PCE measures, the story remains unchanged. The core PCE in the US has been moving up since the summer dip and settled at 2.8% for the second consecutive month, and – I can never repeat this enough but – Trump’s pro-growth policies, tariffs, mass deportations hint that the US inflation risks are tilted toward the upside. As such, the US Dollar pullbacks could be interesting opportunities to buy the dips.
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