Market Overview Analysis by Steve Saville covering: United States 3-Month, United States 10-Year. Read Steve Saville's latest article on Investing.com
Furthermore, despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft landing” . Before discussing what’s behind this divergence we’ll review the current messages from some of our favourite leading recession indicators.Index bounced during September 2023, but its overarching message continues to be that a recession will begin within the next few months. It would have to rise to 55 to cancel the recession warning.
In the more than 60 years covered by this chart, the LEI has never suffered a peak-to-trough decline of 10.5% without the economy having entered recession and the LEI has never declined for longer than 20 months from its peak without the economy having entered recession. Assuming that the economy is not in recession today , this implies that with respect to the LEI’s messaging the economy is now in uncharted territory.
As an aside, due to the way GDP is calculated, it can be boosted by wealth-destroying activities. For a hypothetical example, if the US government were to pay a million people $1000 each to dig a hole and then another $1000 to fill it in, 2 billion dollars would be added to the US GDP. For an actual example, the ongoing destruction of Ukraine is adding to US GDP because it is increasing US production of military equipment and all of the parts/materials that go into the equipment.
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