COVID19Colorado hospitalizations are projected to continue going down through the end of 2022 if BA.5 remains the dominant variant for the remainder of the year, but things could change should a more virulent and infectious variant take hold.
DENVER – COVID-19 hospitalizations are projected to continue declining through the end of 2022 if the BA.5 sublineage of the omicron variant remains the dominant variant of concern in Colorado for the remainder of the year, but things could change should a more virulent and infectious variant take hold, the latest report from the state’s COVID-19 modeling team shows.
Currently, the modeling team estimates 1 in every 188 Coloradans are currently infected with the virus – up from their estimate of 1 in every 162 infected from late August – a decline from summer highs but similar to infection levels from February, after the original omicron wave. Though not highly prevalent in the U.S. right now, “early reports suggest that BF.7 and BQ.1 may have greater immune escape over BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 variants,” the modelers wrote.
“BA.5 and BA.4.6 are currently the dominant VOC [Variants of Concern] in the U.S., but there are predictions that the rising subvariants BF.7 and BQ.1 may be more prevalent in the U.S. by the end of November,” they wrote. Should a new, more virulent and/or more infectious variant arrive in Colorado, the COVID-19 modeling team projects hospitalizations would increase to between 300 if the variant has the same level of virulence as BA.5, and to 1,200 if the newer variant is as virulent as the delta variant from last fall.
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