Even poor countries must start planning for an ageing population
A bulge in a country’s working-age population is a blessing. Lots of workers support relatively few children and retired people. So long as the labour market can absorb a surge of job-seekers, output per head will rise. That can boost savings and investment, leading to higher economic growth, more productivity gains and developmental lift-off. Yet for countries that fail to seize this opportunity, the results can be grim—as many developing countries may soon discover. Consider Thailand.
India’s economy has been one of the world’s fastest-growing, yet not as fast as Thailand’s during its boom. In the decade to 2020 India grew at an average annual rate of 6.6%. One conclusion is that countries with a working-age bulge need to wring more growth out of it. India may never have a better chance than the present. Under Narendra Modi it has a strong, pro-business government, which is likely to win re-election next year.
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