While much-needed rain is expected to help firefighters battle ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles, the downpour also increases the risk of dangerous debris flows. Meteorologists warn of potential hazards posed by heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, particularly in areas scarred by recent blazes.
The Los Angeles area is bracing for rain this weekend, which while offering a much-needed reprieve from the persistent wildfires that have plagued the region throughout the month, also presents an elevated risk of debris flows. Meteorologist Kristan Lund from the National Weather Service's Los Angeles office forecasts rain starting as early as Saturday afternoon and potentially lasting until Monday evening.
Lund emphasizes that while rain is beneficial after a prolonged dry spell, heavier downpours or thunderstorms could be detrimental, increasing the likelihood of debris flows.Wildfires significantly alter the landscape, creating conditions that exacerbate the risk of debris flows. Burned areas often develop an invisible layer of hydrophobic material just beneath the soil's surface. This layer, formed from decomposed leaves and organic matter containing water-repellent compounds, prevents rainwater from penetrating the ground. As a result, water flows over the surface, carrying with it burned debris, soil, and other loose materials. Lund explains that this phenomenon is particularly concerning as all the trees, branches, and other burned materials become readily mobilized by the flowing water.Even without the formation of this hydrophobic layer, wildfires can still trigger debris flows. Danielle Touma, a climate scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, points out that healthy vegetation typically intercepts rainfall, slowing its descent and allowing the soil to absorb water. However, on recently burned land, the lack of vegetation results in immediate rainfall impact on the ground. This exposes the soil to erosion, allowing loose particles to be easily transported by water. The recent wildfires have scorched nearly 50,000 acres in the Los Angeles area, including mountainous terrain susceptible to mudslides. While current forecasts predict rainfall below the intensity that typically triggers debris flows, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, which could bring short, intense bursts of rain.Despite the potential for relief, the rain won't completely alleviate the region's fire risk. Lund emphasizes the need for widespread rainfall of two to three inches to effectively end the high fire season. Although beneficial, this weekend's precipitation won't be sufficient to do so. Moreover, the risk of debris flows remains long after the flames are extinguished. Lund states that debris flows are most concerning in the first two years following a fire, but they can occur even years later depending on conditions. Post-fire recovery efforts include surveying burn scars to identify high-risk areas for debris flows and implementing mitigation measures to protect residents. Touma underscores that even if the storm passes without incident, there is ongoing work to be done. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of wildfires, leading to a greater likelihood of post-fire debris flows in the future. Touma concludes that based on meteorological trends, we should anticipate more debris flows following wildfires in the years to come.
CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE DEBRIS FLOW LA RAIN CLIMATE CHANGE FIRE RISK
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