Democracy has not served the 6m people of Kyrgyzstan particularly well, even if they would not swap it for the dictatorships of their neighbours
of year the wild cherry blossom spreads from the valley floor up the flanks of the mountains that form the glorious backdrop to Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s laid-back capital. Kyrgyzstan itself used to be the democratic flower of Central Asia, surrounded by hulking autocracies. But democracy has not served the 6m people of the former Soviet republic particularly well, even if they would not swap it for the dictatorships of their neighbours. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries in the region.
The people of Kyrgyzstan are proud that two revolutions, in 2005 and 2010, pushed corrupt presidents into exile, albeit at the cost of considerable bloodshed during the second uprising. After these events, voters approved constitutional changes that curtailed the president’s powers, including the ability to dismiss parliament. Presidents may now serve only one term.
A consequence, officials say, is that those in authority dare not put their names to any order or initiative. Moves to broaden the economy, strengthen institutions and improve health care and education have ground to halt. That matters in a country where a single gold mine, whose opencast deposits will soon be exhausted, generates nearly a tenth of, while remittances from migrants toiling in Russia account for a further third.
The risks of political trouble are mounting again. Mr Atambayev has taken bitter offence since Mr Jeyenbekov, once in office, refused to show deference. With reason, he views the arrest of Mr Isakov, his former chief of staff, and other allies as an attack on him. Mr Atambayev has kept a grip on the country’s biggest party, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan. Extraordinarily, last month he took the party, Mr Jeyenbekov’s own, into the opposition.
On April 13th Mr Babanov was due to return to head a rally of his supporters in the capital. But claiming to have got wind of planned “provocations” by “third forces”, he cancelled his return at short notice. Bishkek’s mayor has since proposed banning protests and rallies until next year, on the grounds that they are bad for business and upset tourists. That is more likely to provoke Mr Jeyenbekov’s opponents than subdue them. The last thing most people want is more unrest.
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