Weeks after withdrawing North Korean troops from combat in Ukraine, speculation mounts on Kim Jong Un's next move. Will North Korea back Russia's war effort again, or seek other geopolitical opportunities?
It has been several months since North Korea n troops first moved towards frontline positions in Russia 's southwestern Kursk region during the war in Ukraine . However, weeks after these troops vanished from combat, following what Ukraine describes as heavy casualties, there are questions about what North Korea n leader Kim Jong Un 's next move might be.
Observers suggest that Kim will likely remain close to key ally Russian President Vladimir Putin while potentially re-engaging with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. There may also be new opportunities for the Pyongyang regime to reconnect with the U.S. under President Donald Trump. Regardless of how Kim plays his political cards, there is little doubt among experts that North Korean forces will return to action against Ukraine, likely after regrouping, retraining, or deploying fresh troops.Continued support for Russia's war effort at this point likely makes sense in Pyongyang. This involves propping up Russia's long-running attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Kursk. 'North Korea likely sees little risk in its support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine,' said Bryden Spurling, a senior research leader in defense and security with the Rand Corporation think tank's European arm. 'We can see that in how they're directly contributing ground forces in a way that no other state is, on either side of the war,' Spurling told Newsweek. Kim sent an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers to Russia, who were quickly directed towards Kursk, according to intelligence reports in the fall. Estimates from Ukraine put the number of casualties (killed or injured) at roughly half that number, although this information cannot be independently verified. Reports from Moscow and Pyongyang have differed on the effectiveness of the troops. While hailing from a heavily militarized society, these North Korean soldiers lacked real combat experience. Some have labelled the troops as 'cannon fodder,' while select Ukrainian sources have described them as disciplined, in good shape, and adept with weapons. 'Their militarization means they have valuable things to contribute for the kind of attritional warfare that Russia is mired in—namely quantity rather than quality of personnel and equipment,' Spurling said. Ukraine typically describes these soldiers, many of whom were trained as Pyongyang's special forces, as being thrown into combat in waves of infantry assaults that are likely to yield high numbers of casualties. However, the North Koreans haven't been spotted by Kyiv in combat since the first few weeks of January, according to Ukrainian sources. Several reasons have been cited for this absence, according to Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank. Pyongyang is now likely concerned about the heavy casualty count, and they are fearful that more of their fighters could be captured by Ukraine, Ramani told Newsweek. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that two North Korean soldiers are in Ukrainian custody as prisoners of war (POWs). Zelensky said in mid-January that one POW had 'expressed a desire to stay in Ukraine.' The other, the Ukrainian president said, wished to return home. Colonel Oleksandr Kindratenko, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, told Newsweek that the North Koreans fighting in Kursk had little experience in the drone warfare that has become so dominant in the nearly three years of Europe's largest land conflict since World War II. Although they shed protective armor to move quickly and erratically away from the reach of uncrewed aerial vehicles, this lack of experience is a vulnerability. North Korea is likely worried by its lack of preparedness for modern drone warfare, Ramani said. However, regarding North Korea's relations with Russia, 'nothing has changed,' said Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow with the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution's Center for Asia Policy Studies. 'It's more there might be some shift on the tactical front and on the battlefield,' he told Newsweek. Spurling added: 'Both Russia and North Korea have more to gain than lose from their relationship in the current moment.'International watchers believe North Korea is, or will be, receiving economic aid and assistance with its weapons development programs from Russia in exchange for munitions, missiles, and troops. Pyongyang could be seeking more modern equipment from Russia, such as aircraft or submarine technology, Spurling said. North Korea could also benefit from Russian-designed guided bombs and missiles, Ramani said. Reports in recent days have indicated that North Korea's missiles, provided to Russia for use against Ukraine, have become increasingly accurate since they were first fired into the country more than a year ago. These improvements, and North Korea's opportunities to test and tweak its missiles, will be a real concern for South Korea
North Korea Russia Ukraine Kim Jong Un Vladimir Putin Military Aid Weapons Development Geopolitics Drone Warfare
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