Kim Jong-Un is talking tough: Here's what geology will tell us if North Korea tests nuclear bombs again

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Kim Jong-Un is talking tough: Here's what geology will tell us if North Korea tests nuclear bombs again
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Estimates of the size of North Korea’s test in September 2017 place it between 70 and 280 kilotons of TNT equivalent.

North Korea’s leader, Chairman Kim Jong Un, clearly is in no hurry to demilitarize his country. In the wake of two historic yet unproductive summits with President Trump, Kim made a state visit in April to Moscow, where he made clear that his country will not give up its nuclear weapons without international security guarantees. North Korea also tested what appeared to be short-range missiles on April 18 and May 4.

A nation in the darkFor an isolated nation like North Korea, developing a functional nuclear weapons program is a historic feat. Just eight other sovereign states have accomplished this goal—the five declared nuclear weapons states plus Israel, India and Pakistan. North Korea conducted its first nuclear test on Oct. 6, 2006. Many experts considered the test to be unsuccessful because the size of the explosion, as determined from seismograms, was relatively small. However, that conclusion was based on incomplete information. And the test still served as a powerful domestic propaganda tool and international display of might.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un watching the test-fire of an intercontinental ballistic missile in July, 2017. STR/AFP/Getty Images Additionally, my research and work by other scientists have shown that many types of rock enhance the production of earthquake-like seismic waves by underground explosions. The more energy from an explosion that gets converted into these earthquake-like waves, the more difficult it becomes to estimate the size of the explosion.

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