Talks are heating up between Iraq and Turkey about restarting a major oil flow, but not everything is as it seems.
Discussions between Iraq’s SOMO, the Kurdistan Regional Government , and Turkey’s BOTAS focus on resuming oil exports from the KRI to Turkey.
Major geopolitical shifts, including Russia's influence and the U.S.'s diminished role, have played a crucial part in shaping Iraq's oil trade dynamics.Since 25 March, hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of oil flows crucial to the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq and important to the oil sector as a whole have been prevented from being exported to Turkey on the basis that they are regarded as illegal by the Federal Government of Iraq in Baghdad.
The Iraqi Constitution was no help in shedding a definitive legal light on the issue. According to the KRI, it has authority under Articles 112 and 115 of the Iraq Constitution to manage oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region extracted from fields that were not in production in 2005 – the year that the Constitution was adopted by referendum.
However, one of the four key turning points in the recent geopolitical life of Baghdad, as also analysed in depth in , occurred in September 2017. This was the failure of the U.S. to support the outcome of the overwhelming vote in Iraqi Kurdistan for an independent Kurdish state. Washington had tacitly assured the Kurds that in exchange for their providing the boots on the ground in the fight against Daesh, they would be granted independence. After the vote, the U.S.
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