The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August
A key COVID-19 model reduced downward the number of hospital beds predicted to be needed at peak outbreak. Photo: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg via Getty Images A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.
The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to “a massive infusion of new data,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release. The model also revised downward the prediction for the number of ventilators needed at the height of the outbreak. It now predicts the need for 18,992 ventilators, down from 31,782.
Among the information that led to the April 5 changes is data from states showing lower ratios of hospital admissions to deaths. That results in “predicted peak hospital resource use — total beds, ICU beds, and invasive ventilators — that is lower than previously estimated,” according to the IHME’s explanation of the revised predictions.
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