Analysis - War in the Middle East plunged humanity to new lows on Sunday 8 October 2023 that have gripped international attention since. If that were not the case, the world would likely be abuzz with the breathtaking exploits of a 23-year-old Kenyan who changed running history in Chicago on the same day.
on Sunday 8 October 2023 that have gripped international attention since. If that were not the case, the world would likely be abuzz with theKelvin Kiptum, running just his third marathon, finished the 42.195 kilometre race in 2h 00m 35s. This lowered the previous world record set by countryman Eliud Kipchoge in Berlin last year, by a whopping 34 seconds. This is the first time that the world record has been obliterated by more than 30 seconds since official ratification began 20 years ago.
By my calculations and analysis he has, in all likelihood, set the scene for the"sub-2 hour" marathon mark to fall in the next few years. Prior to Kiptum's run, I was less convinced we would see the milestone fall before the end of the decade. My approach is to fit a model to the average trend of marathon world record times over several decades, and then to estimate the likelihood of going below this trend to run a given time on a given day.
In other words, Kiptum's performance is less expected , based on the historical world record progression line, than Kipchoge's. This is so even if you take into account the natural progression of the world record we'd expect over the year between the runs.Let's suppose that a hypothetical runner in the mould of Kiptum was at the start line in future marathons.
First, the model learns to be a bit more accommodating of Kiptum-like performances. In effect, he becomes a bit less extraordinary, tracking closer to the updated"1 in 4" likelihood line.
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