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Kemi Badenoch enters the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham with her party recovering strongly and positioning itself as the principal alternative to Labour. A possible snap general election presents a major opportunity, but the Conservatives face formidable economic challenges, a widening Labour lead and tough competition from Reform UK.
Last month I was chatting to an old Labour adviser who had worked for Neil Kinnock in the 1980s. Conference season was approaching and our conversation turned to Kinnock’s famous 1985 attack on Militant.
‘That was the most important speech in Labour Party history,’ he said. ‘Yes, Neil went on to lose the election a couple of years later. But that wasn’t the point.
‘We went into that campaign in 1987 knowing we almost certainly couldn’t beat Thatcher. But we knew we had to come out ahead of the Alliance or we were dead. That would have been the end of us. And if it wasn’t for Neil’s destruction of Militant, we would never have beaten them.
’ Today Kemi Badenoch arrives in Birmingham for the start of the Tory Party’s own annual gathering. And what has become the most pivotal moment in the history of the Conservative Party since the end of the Second World War. A week ago Andy Burnham announced there would be no general election until 2029. I observed at the time that he was bluffing.
And as a series of reports confirmed yesterday, Downing Street is indeed preparing for a snap poll next year. Which makes this Tory conference the last before that election. An election that will not just decide whether the Tories will return to government, but whether the party will survive at all. The transformation in their fortunes over the past 12 months has been nothing short of seismic.
When Badenoch arrived in Manchester this time last year, it was widely assumed she was set to be dumped by her colleagues in favour of Robert Jenrick. Projections put Kemi Badenoch ahead of Nigel Farage in terms of number of seats.
And in the national polls, the Tories are snapping at Reform’s heels Farage is still embroiled in ongoing allegations of sleaze, with speculation rife this weekend an announcement is imminent over his acceptance of a £5million gift from a Thai crypto-billionaire Conservative poll ratings were in the dustbin, 13 points behind Reform. Nigel Farage was predicted to be on the cusp of power, on course to win more than 300 seats, while the Tory leader was heading for political oblivion with just 45 MPs.
Now she stands the undisputed Queen of Conservatism. Projections put her ahead of Farage in terms of number of seats. And in the national polls, the Tories are snapping at Reform’s heels.
‘It’s a completely different party that’s gathering in Birmingham,’ a close ally told me. ‘Kemi is now clearly in charge. There are a raft of new faces on our front bench. People recognise we are a proper Conservative Party again.
‘And we have made a decisive shift from the past. All the faces from the old, failed government are now on the TV making the case for Reform, rather than for us. ’ But there the good news ends. A general election may well be less than eight months away.
And the chances of the Tories instantly rebounding to the point where they can realistically hope to win a majority currently appear infinitesimal. Some senior members of the Shadow Cabinet still believe there is a scenario where they could make the miraculous leap back into power at the first attempt.
‘Look at the current economic situation,’ one told me. ‘Burnham said virtually nothing about the economy in his conference speech. The gilt markets are teetering on the brink of meltdown. The debt burden is worsening.
He has no credible plan for cutting spending. A major financial crisis is a distinct possibility. And if that happens all bets are off. ’ A more realistic proposition is Badenoch could recover sufficiently to make the Prime Minister think twice about a May dash to the Palace.
As another shadow minister explained: ‘What we’ll be doing at this conference is showing that we are now the only party seriously thinking about the challenges facing Britain. Burnham is appealing solely to the Left. Farage is now only talking to the 5 per cent of voters currently saying they’ll vote for Restore. Kemi and the rest of us will be pitching our messages directly at the whole country.
And if we can make that connection, then Burnham simply won’t be able to take the gamble of going to the polls early. ’ But again, that is a tough ask. Whatever people’s thoughts of his individual policy stances, Andy Burnham seized control of the political agenda with his passionate, and at times emotional, address to his party faithful in Liverpool. Labour’s poll lead is widening.
And Kemi Badenoch will have to pull something stunning out of the policy locker on Wednesday if she is to get a poll bounce sufficient to completely knock Burnham off balance. Which leaves her with one more realistic, if equally vital, objective. Badenoch must depart Birmingham with the Tories securely established as the sole viable alternative to the Prime Minister’s unashamed, 1970s retro-socialism.
There are some on the Right still desperately praying for some form of 11th-hour pact between Reform and the Conservative Party. A perfect illustration of how realistic this prospect is was provided on Thursday by Jaymey McIvor, the senior Reform strategist who is a close ally of Zia Yusuf. Leaving the launch party for Suella Braverman’s new book Patriot, he tweeted: ‘We will wipe the Tory Party from the face of the Earth.
’ That is what is at stake this week for Kemi Badenoch. If there is indeed a snap election, and the Tories were to somehow come third behind Reform, then McIvor and his colleagues will be successful in prosecuting their act of political genocide. The party of Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher would simply cease to exist. Badenoch’s team are well aware of this fact.
As one senior Tory adviser acknowledged: ‘It’s absolutely vital we get our noses in front of Reform soon, and stay in front. We simply cannot afford to slip behind them if Burnham calls a snap election. It’s fundamental to everything. Media coverage.
Money. The whole thing. ’ Which is why Badenoch has to seize the moment. Nigel Farage is still embroiled in ongoing allegations of sleaze, with speculation rife this weekend an announcement is imminent over his acceptance of a £5million gift from a Thai crypto-billionaire.
The Budget is beckoning, which will give the Tories an opportunity to properly shine the spotlight on Andy Burnham’s failure to set out a clear and coherent economic strategy. And for a brief moment the country will turn its eyes to Birmingham to see if the New Tory Party really does have something substantive to offer them. Forty years ago Neil Kinnock delivered the speech that saved Labour.
This is the week Kemi Badenoch must deliver the speech that saves the Conservatives. And possibly Britain.
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