--for the 11th month in a row--and the 6.5% year-on-year drop we are in has never happened outside of recessions.
Obviously, a recession is going to loosen the labor market, unwind wage pressures, soften housing and rent prices, and further remove upward pressure on inflation. Whether it begins next month, or in two or three or four months, should not matter in terms of the Fed's response here, which should obviously be to cut or at least pause rate hikes.
The more they hike now, the more they'll end up cutting anyway; the market as of Friday already had the Fed funds rateby then--or more, if they keep hiking first.is why tech stocks, Bitcoin, and similar "liquidity momentum" trades have taken off again. The market knows the Fed can't keep tightening, and will soon have to ease to support the economy.
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