According to Harry Enten, on average, in 2022, polls underestimated the Democrats by 4 points in the midterm elections.
Kamala Harris could win in a landslide if polls underestimate the Democrats in the same way they did in 2022, according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.According to Enten, on average, polls underestimated the Democrats by 4 points in the midterm elections, which saw the Democrats win 51 seats in the Senate while the Republicans took the House.
4 points ahead nationally, but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris' 48 percent chance.Both aggregators show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Harris 0.1 points ahead in Nevada, while Silver's forecast shows the two candidates tied.In 2020, polls showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then President Trump.
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