So far, enthusiasm for the Harris campaign has vindicated Democratic Party elites’ decision to push Joe Biden out of the race. Was this just a lucky guess based on political vibes? Or were there actual data supporting the decision?
U.S. Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris arrives to speak at the Democratic National Convention on August 22, 2024.. Despite the chorus, the Biden team justified him staying in the ring by pointing to public opinion polls, which showed thatDid polling data really indicate that Biden should drop out? Or was his decision not to seek reelection solely based on a bunch ofafter Harris became the nominee to assert that party leaders made the right decision in July.
Data before July did suggest that shedding Biden would improve Democrats’ performance. But the question wasn’t who people were planning to support but rather what their enthusiasm for voting was. Voting intention measures matter more than enthusiasm ones. But enthusiasm makes a great deal of difference at the margins, because it keeps those voting intentions from getting waylaid. That's a hidden lesson behind the polling stories ahead in this year’s election.
Democrats, however, can no longer congratulate themselves for making the smart political decision. As Tuesday’s debate nears, they have to face the next major hurdle: Will putting Harris and Trump in the same room help or hurt the chances of their candidate generating enough enthusiasm—and voter turnout—for her to win a very tight election? The answer may decide the race for the White House.
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