Marc Hochstein is the executive editor of Consensus, CoinDesk's flagship event. He holds BTC above CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1K and de minimis amounts of other digital assets (details on profile page).
Vice president Kamala Harris' odds of becoming the Democratic nominee for president this year more than quadrupled on Tuesday, according to traders on Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market platform that's seen torrid growth in an election year.asking whether she will get the nod traded as high as 31 cents in the afternoon New York time, indicating the market saw a 31% chance it will happen, up from 7% earlier in the day.
A Newsweek op-ed by former Congressman Tim Ryan, the first presidential candidate to endorse Biden in 2020, was more blunt:"The trend was similar Tuesday on PredictIt, a more traditional prediction market platform where bets are settled in dollars rather than crypto."Yes" shares for Harris thereto 35 cents. PredictIt's volume on the question of who will win the Democratic nomination totals $31 million, dwarfed by Polymarket at $75 million.
Under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is barred from doing business in the U.S., whereas PredictIt is allowed to operate in the country under a regulatory exemption. Tuesday was Polymarket's fifth-largest volume day in its four-year history, with $5.7 million in trading, according to Dune Analytics data. June was the first month Polymarket sawin a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence.
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