The vice president has over a 50 percent chance of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, according to Silver.
Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win four critical swing states against former President Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver's presidential model.With the presidential election a month-and-a-half away, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has over a 50 percent chance of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, Silver currently predicts.
PennsylvaniaIn Pennsylvania, Harris has a win probability of 57 percent and a tipping-point probability of 32 percent. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes.The vice president has 48.9 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania compared to Trump's 47.4 percent, which is a 1.5-point lead, according to Silver's numbers. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Harris ahead of Trump by 1.4 points .
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