Oregon's Justin Flowe may be the 2023 NFL Draft’s biggest wildcard and hardest evaluation. Why? Brentley12 explains. FrontOffice33 | NFLDraft | GoDucks
The thing that’s great about the NFL and the NFL draft is that every player’s path to the league is different and things are very rarely linear. You’ll have your five-star players who, out of high school, were deemed as potential first-round picks and instant impact players. Some of those five-stars will live up to the hype and hear their name called in round one, but some will not—that’s perfectly normal.
If you are a five-star and you hit, you are more likely to be a first-round pick than a mid-rounder. That makes a ton of sense because the first round is where the league likes to invest in players that have rare physical tools and often those physical tools are easy to spot even when the prospect is in high school. A five-star has a greater chance of being undrafted than going in the first round of the draft which also makes sense if you just play the odds game.
After playing just two snaps in the COVID-shortened season, Flowe tore his meniscus, missing the entirety of his freshman season. The disappointment continued in his sophomore season in 2021 as he was only able to play the season opener against Fresno State before suffering a foot injury which would cost him the rest of that season as well. So, in total, the highly regarded prospect has only played in a game and two snaps.
But at the end of the day, Flowe is a total projection right now. While it’s easy to buy into his high school hype and his rare physical traits, the fact of the matter is he just simply doesn’t have enough tape out there to get an accurate evaluation.
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