Bidenistas who were hoping for a reelection announcement bump need to pray for better numbers.
Gallup has just released its latest survey on Biden's approval rating. He has hit 37%, the lowest rating of his presidency so far and the lowest since November's election. The data are almost all from before Biden's video reelection announcement, so it's entirely possible that next month's numbers will look better for him. But maybe that's just the hope talking.
By the 1984 election, everything had changed for Reagan. Paul Volcker's Federal Reserve finally had inflation under control. The Kemp-Roth tax bill that he had signed in August 1981 was at last injecting some life into the economy. Unemployment had fallen to 7.2% on its way down to 5%. National optimism was famously at a high, such that Reagan could credibly campaign on"it's morning in America.
Biden's biggest problem might be that no one expects the economic picture to brighten as dramatically as it did then. To most people, neither unemployment nor interest rates seem likely to fall in such dramatic fashion in the next year and a half. Gasoline prices could also become an issue once again — a problem of Biden's own making. Generally, public feelings about the economy are pessimistic.
Gallup's own Economic Confidence Index similarly has public sentiment at -44, whereas it had been above zero as recently as June 2021. Does this mean Biden will lose reelection? Not at all. Biden's Democrats managed to avoid disaster in 2022 despite his poor poll numbers. And Republicans could improve his odds if they take a huge gamble and renominate the one man in America who routinely polls as more unpopular than the president.
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