JUNE BY-ELECTIONS: EFF and DA stun ANC in two wards, but ruling party hangs on in Soweto and KZN wards, read our full analysis by waynesussman:
The setting
The ANC won the by-election by 462 votes, but saw a sharp decline in support. Slovoville broke for Shongwe in the by-election as he won 56% of the vote. The ANC’s percentage vote share fell from 62% to 19% here. What is clear now is that while Soweto still leans towards the ANC, it is no longer an impenetrable stronghold and there is much for the party to do here and the west of the province to reconnect with voters it has lost.The setting
Between 2016 and 2021, the EFF won two by-elections against the ANC. In 2022, the EFF has taken three consecutive wards off the ANC – Phokwane in the Northern Cape, Mafikeng in North West and now Bekkersdal. The party also win its first ward off the ANC in a Gauteng by-election. Ward 4 has only one voting station, in the southern part of the town, around Carnarvon High School and close to the R63 to Loxton. It is relatively diverse compared with other wards in the municipality.: Elections tend to be close in this part of Kareeberg. The ANC picked up this ward by winning 59 more votes than the local Kareeberg Civic Movement . The margin was even closer on the PR ballot, where the ANC won by 31 votes.
The ANC matched its 2021 performance but was not able to lure back EFF or KCM voters in this ward. The EFF will be happy with third place. It was not a good outing for the PA which failed to make headway in Carnarvon. KCM has both the mayoral chain and the speaker’s chair. It will hope its voters in Carnarvon were motivated by strategy rather than their potential disappointment in the governance of the municipality.
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