July has arrived with plenty of questions: Will Washington’s relatively cool summer continue? Will rainfall stay below normal? And is more smoke on the way? Here's our projection for the month:
July has arrived with plenty of questions: Will Washington’s relatively cool summer continue? Will rainfall stay below normal? And is more smoke on the way?
So far this summer, weather model forecasts for temperatures have been too warm, which is known as a hot bias. Part of the reason may be our intermittent smoky periods, which can reduce daytime sunshine. However, the data from June shows that, unrelated to the smoke, inaccuracies in the jet stream forecast have contributed to the hot bias as well. This may be due to the developing El Niño pattern, which tends to favor cooler summer weather in the Mid-Atlantic.
What about the smoke? Canada’s hot and dry summer is anticipated to continue. For us, that means we should continue to occasionally experience intrusions of smoke following the passage of cold fronts when winds come from the north or northwest. The smoke could come from fires in both western and eastern Canada asThe average verified temperature in Washington in June was 74.1 degrees, which was 2.2 degrees cooler than normal, the coolest in 14 years.
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