Judging overreactions to 2024 NFL draft picks, team classes

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Judging overreactions to 2024 NFL draft picks, team classes
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We're sizing up Chicago's postseason hopes, Atlanta's first-round mistake, Vegas' QB situation and futures of Daniel Jones and Brandon Aiyuk.

Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels. You can follow Dan on Twitter via @DanGrazianoESPN.. Our annual rollicking marathon of hope, hype and blind guessing about the future pro performance of college players.

In spite of all the time that teams, fans and media spend on scouting the draft, in the end, it is not about scouting. It's about value and resource allocation. In a salary cap league, teams that want to sign and keep their star players as they get more expensive absolutely must get significant contributions from drafted players while they're on their rookie contracts. This is the main reason the Chiefs have continued to win Super Bowls while dishing out huge contracts to.

Cousins plays the entire 2024 season, but for whatever reason, the Falcons decide next spring that Penix is ready to start in 2025. They could keep Cousins as Penix's backup, but $27.5 million is a lot of money for a backup. Cutting Cousins at this point would result in a $65 million dead-money cap charge. Trading him would cause a $37.5 million dead-money hit. And Atlanta would have paid him $62.5 million for one season.

Buffalo and Kansas City are in two different places as franchises. The Chiefs have a deep roster that has won the past two Super Bowls and can trade up for players they view as finishing touches. The Bills have seen a ton of talent walk out the door this offseason and need more picks. They added a third-rounder -- they didn't have one at the time -- in this deal. Then they traded back again, from No. 32 to No.

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