His first attempt came before the fall of the Soviet Union or, for those who think in terms of Michael Jackson’s discography, between “Bad” and “Dangerous”
, a senator from Georgia, Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, to name a few, have all shown the ability to win in places where Republicans are competitive. But Democrats are a more orderly bunch than Republicans these days. No serious candidates wish to destabilise a sitting president’s campaign. And so Mr Biden’s only primary challengers so far are a former spiritual adviser to Oprah Winfrey and an anti-vaccine campaigner.
And yet this is not as sorry a position as it might seem. Yes, most Americans do not want Mr Biden to run again. But reluctant Democrats will line up behind their nominee. And, more importantly, an even higher number do not want another four years of Mr Trump. Among voters in general, Mr Biden’s numbers beat Mr Trump’s .
In theory, sitting presidents run on their records. Were that the case, Mr Biden could feel more confident ahead of next year’s vote. He has done more than almost anyone to prevent Russia from taking over Ukraine, without deploying any American troops. At home his big idea has been to pursue anaimed at increasing the domestic manufacture of semiconductor chips, thereby easing American dependence on Taiwan, and to hand out subsidies aimed at speeding up the decarbonisation of America’s economy.
In practice, though, elections are not just referendums on the achievements of the incumbent. Campaigning matters. And Mr Biden is not very good at it. The video announcing his 2024 run was an admission of that: the president is better when chopped into small clips, set against a stirring soundtrack with images of happy Americans, than he is giving a speech in front of a crowd. His vice-president, whose autocue sometimes seems to be controlled by Armando Iannucci, is not much help either.
In 2020 Mr Biden hardly had to campaign because big gatherings of people were prevented by the spread of covid-19. That suited him, as did the economic slowdown brought about by the pandemic. What will matter even more in 2024 is the performance of the economy. Incumbent presidents running with a strong economy almost always win. Which is another way of saying that a Biden-Trump rematch would be much more uncertain than it should be, relying on factors beyond Mr Biden’s control.
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