It’s hard to get a clear answer, since weekly jobless claims and the monthly employment report appear to tell very different stories.
What the heck is really going on in the labor market? Are 30 million Americans unemployed? Or is it 17 million? Are companies bringing back millions of workers? Or laying even more people off?
“I am surprised and disappointed the continuing claims have not come down further,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities. “It doesn’t ring true with everything we are seeing.”It shows that the economy regained 7.5 million jobs in May and June, partially recovering some of the more-than 22 million jobs lost during the first two months of the pandemic. A variety of other economic indicators also suggest that more people have gone back to work.
But some economists are less willing to believe the feel-good story told by the monthly employment report. James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said he’d rather trust data on how much the government is shelling out in benefits than a monthly report based on a survey of households.
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