Recurring applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in almost two years, indicating ongoing stability in the labor market.
Recurring applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in almost two years, indicating ongoing stability in the labor market despite fresh economic headwinds. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, fell by 32,000 to 1.
819 million in the week ended March 14, the lowest since May 2024, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Initial claims increased by 5,000 last week, to 210,000. Filings have remained subdued despite high-profile companies such as Paramount Skydance Corp.’s CBS News and Meta Platforms Inc. announcing job cuts. Many economists have downgraded their forecasts for the U.S. economy this year and boosted projections for unemployment following a surge in oil prices sparked by the Iran war. But initial claims are settling near some of the lowest levels seen in the last year, signaling the labor market continues to be in a low-firing environment. The four-week moving average of new applications, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, edged down to 210,500. Before adjusting for seasonal factors, initial claims fell. Kentucky and Ohio registered the largest declines. Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the decline in continuing claims could be a good sign for upcoming jobs reports. “The number of unemployed on permanent layoff had kept rising through February in the employment report, but continuing claims are one sign that you could soon see the unemployment rate level off or decline,” Reinhart said in a note following the release. “That depends, of course, on the magnitude and duration of the recent energy shock.” Others, like Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said rising long-term unemployment and difficulties among first-time job seekers may weaken the signal about the extent of joblessness in the U.S. conveyed by the continuing claims numbers. Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, also suggested they are out of step with weak perceptions of the labor market in consumer surveys. The number of Americans unemployed for at least 27 weeks has almost doubled over the last three years, and stood at 1.9 million — or 25% of all unemployed persons — in February, according to monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data. Workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits, though some provide fewer. “Layoffs being low is the main story,” Dutta said. But “continuing claims are somewhat at odds with consumer attitudes around job finding.” Fanzeres writes for Bloomberg.
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