In a guest opinion series debating the wisdom of peace agreements, Jeffrey Sachs argues that major neutral countries, in conjunction with the UN, can be the “co-guarantors to begin a new era of peace and rebuilding”
nor Ukraine is likely to achieve a decisive military victory in their ongoing war: both sides have considerable room for deadly escalation. Ukraine and its Western allies have little chance of ousting Russia from Crimea and the Donbas region, while Russia has little chance of forcing Ukraine to surrender. As Joe Biden noted in October, the spiral of escalation marks the first direct threat of “nuclear Armageddon” since the Cuban missile crisis 60 years ago.
Yet the conflict could proceed for another reason: that neither side sees the possibility of an enforceable peace agreement. Ukrainian leaders believe that Russia would use any pause in fighting to rearm. Russian leaders believe thatwould use any pause in fighting to expand Ukraine’s arsenal. They choose to fight now, rather than face a stronger foe later.
Success may well hinge on who is included in trying to find and enforce peace. Since the belligerents themselves cannot forge such a peace alone, a key structural solution lies in bringing additional parties to the agreement. Neutral nations including Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa have repeatedly called for a negotiated end to the conflict. They could help to enforce any agreement that is reached.
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