It's too risky to put new money in stocks right now, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey warns (via TradingNation)
It shows the 7-day trend line of new infections has flattened following this month's rise in cases. But Harvey warns it could still "break either way.". His hope is the first debate between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden on Tuesday moves the needle.
"If the debate tightens the race, one of the things that we worry about is the probability of a contested election," said Harvey. "In a contested election, we can see 10% downside to the equity market." He may be near-term bearish, but Harvey isn't letting it affect his optimistic 2021 forecast. He's longer-term bullish on stocks regardless of who wins the election.
"We're longer-term positive because we do think there's a Covid solution that hits the marketplace," he added. "The first half [earnings] comps are very easy, and we do think the economy slowly grinds higher.", that would be winners in a pandemic-free world. "Surprisingly we want to add Covid beta to the portfolio. When we talk about Covid beta that means stocks that do well as Covid becomes more manageable as we get solutions in the marketplace," he said. "What you need to see is just a gradual improvement, and because the situation has been so dire for so long, we could see a tremendous amount of upside."year-end target of 3,388, which reflects about a 6% drop from the index's all-time high hit on Sept. 2.
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